Southern Worcester County Regional Heat Resiliency Plan
Welcome to the homepage of the CMRPC's 2024 Southern Worcester County Regional Heat Resiliency Plan. This plan will cover all 40 CMRPC municipalities from Berlin in the East, to Hardwick in the West, to Sturbridge in the Southwest, and Blackstone in the Southeast. We are currently working on Phase I of the project, which is focused on data collection and community outreach. CMRPC is using District Local Technical Assistance Funding for Phase 1 activities in FY 24.
Improving quality of life in the face of chronic and acute risks of heat
Quickly transforming the systems that limit current or future capacity to adapt
Proactively managing and mitigating heat across the many systems and sectors it affects
(i.e. public health, food systems, energy, emergency preparedness, etc.)
According to the
American Planning
Association (APA), "
heat resiliency" means..
What does the term "heat resiliency" mean?
According to the American
Planning Association
"heat resiliency" means..
Urban heat resilience strategies figure provided by Ladd Keith and Sara Meerow, 2021.
Statewide Historic & Future Heat Trends
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), average temperatures across Massachusetts have risen roughly 3.5% since the start of the 20th century.
Also according to NOAA, temperatures are projected to increase over time under both the lower emissions and higher emissions scenarios. Cold wave intensity is projected to decrease over time across Massachusetts as well.
Image taken from "Heat Resilience Solutions for Boston" website.
Image taken from the NOAA National Centers For Environmental Information State Climate Summaries 2022 website https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/ma/
Southern Worcester County Projected Heat Trends
2050 Projections Using Lower and Higher Emissions Scenarios
Led by the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA) in partnership with Cornell University, U.S. Geological Survey and Tufts University, the Massachusetts Climate and Hydrologic Risk Project (Phase 1) has developed new climate change projections for the Commonwealth using two different scenarios: RCP* 4.5, (the Lower Emissions Scenario), and RCP* 8.5, (the Higher Emissions Scenario), as of 2023.
*RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway
The map on the left depicts 50th percentile temperature projections for the CMRPC region out to 2050 using the State's High Emissions Scenario (RCP 8.5). The Northwest region could see the highest changes in annual average daily temperatures, ranging from 5.4-6.3%.
Led by the Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA) in partnership with Cornell University, U.S. Geological Survey and Tufts University, the Massachusetts Climate and Hydrologic Risk Project (Phase 1) has developed new climate change projections for the Commonwealth using two different scenarios: RCP* 4.5, (the Lower Emissions Scenario), and RCP* 8.5, (the Higher Emissions Scenario), as of 2023.
*RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway
The map on the left depicts 50th percentile temperature projections for the CMRPC region out to 2050 using the State's High Emissions Scenario (RCP 8.5). The Northwest region could see the highest changes in annual average daily temperatures, ranging from 5.4-6.3%.
The RCP 8.5 scenario signifies a future where carbon dioxide and methane emissions continue to rise as a result of fossil fuel use, albeit with significant declines in emission growth rates over the second half of the century.
The second map directly to the left depicts 50th percentile temperature projections for the CMRPC region out to 2050 using the State's Low Emissions Scenario (RCP 4.5). Overall, under this scenario, the CMRPC region could see an equal amount of change across the region, at 4.5% projected everywhere.
The RCP 4.5 scenario signifies a future where atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels remain below 550 and 450 parts per million (ppm) by 2100.
More information about the climate models, scenarios and projections that the State used can be found here.
The RCP 4.5 scenario signifies a future where atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels remain below 550 and 450 parts per million (ppm) by 2100.
More information about the climate models, scenarios and projections that the State used can be found here.
The RCP 8.5 scenario signifies a future where carbon dioxide and methane emissions continue to rise as a result of fossil fuel use, albeit with significant declines in emission growth rates over the second half of the century.
The second map directly to the left depicts 50th percentile temperature projections for the CMRPC region out to 2050 using the State's Low Emissions Scenario (RCP 4.5). Overall, under this scenario, the CMRPC region could see an equal amount of change across the region, at 4.5% projected everywhere.
The RCP 4.5 scenario signifies a future where atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels remain below 550 and 450 parts per million (ppm) by 2100.
More information about the climate models, scenarios and projections that the State used can be found here.
Please tell us about your experiences with extreme heat in Central Massachusetts using this link.
CMRPC needs your help!
Dr. Adam Menard - Town Planner, Town of Auburn
Conor McCormack - Director of Planning & Development, Town of Millbury
Laurie Connors - Planning Director, Town of Northborough
Keith Baldinger - Assistant Director of Public Works, Town of Shrewsbury
Paul F. Normandin, Jr. - Fire Chief & Emergency Management Director, Town of Southbridge
Eileen Alexander - Regional Public Health Coordinator, Town of Webster
Sandy Amoakohene - REACH Built Environment and Food Systems Coordinator, City of Worcester
Sarah Mount - Energy Analyst at Department of Sustainability and Resilience, City of Worcester
Steering Committee Members
The RCP 8.5 scenario signifies a future where carbon dioxide and methane emissions continue to rise as a result of fossil fuel use, albeit with significant declines in emission growth rates over the second half of the century.
The second map directly to the left depicts 50th percentile temperature projections for the CMRPC region out to 2050 using the State's Low Emissions Scenario (RCP 4.5). Overall, under this scenario, the CMRPC region could see an equal amount of change across the region, at 4.5% projected everywhere.
The RCP 4.5 scenario signifies a future where atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels remain below 550 and 450 parts per million (ppm) by 2100.
More information about the climate models, scenarios and projections that the State used can be found here.